The last time the Houston Astros drafted a pitcher in the 1st round (not including supplemental picks) who then started at LEAST two career games for the Houston Astros was Tony McKnight, who was drafted in 1995.
In the past 40 years, weâve drafted exactly one pitcher in the first round (again, not including supplemental picks) who started at least 30 games in any season for the Houston Astros â Scott Elarton, who did that once.
May be time to lay off pitchers in the first round. Weâre not good at this.
Disappointing news about Whitley. I know the folks in charge donât want the draft pick reductions associated with going over the threshold again, but I would imagine those debates are intensifying. I really like Javier and Iâm comfortable with him in the rotation. I like Garcia as well. I just donât like the fact that we have very little experienced depth. We have little room for more injuries or a sophomore season decline from those who emerged last season. Odorizzi starting to look better and better. And Click should be very familiar with him.
I do not mean for this to be a âI walked 9 miles uphill in the snowâ post, but I do not remember many times when my arm felt 100% soreness-free after pitching. Soreness goes with the territory to a degree, and one of my major soapbox topics, with which I will bore you again, is the babying of pitchersâ arms which goes on in the minor leagues. When they get to the bigs and are expected to handle a major league workload, their arms are not ready for it. Whitleyâs arm is sore after a game? Duh.
Maybe he really is hurt, and if so, Iâll eat a small portion of crow, but I am sick of his whining and complaining. JV, Strom, or somebody needs to have a Come to Jesus talk with him.
That sure doesnât look good, but those criteria leave out 1st round picks like Lidge and Wagner (who, I think we can all agree, were valuable contributors despite not starting games) and Foltynewicz (traded to ATL). Iâd be curious to apply the same criteria to other teams and see what their success rate is.
Itâs pretty low. A cursory look of teams like the Braves, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox show similar. None or maybe one guy. The Cubs had a couple in Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, but none since 2001. The Dodgers have Kershaw and Buehler. The Cardinals seem to be pretty good at it, as they have four or five guys meet that criteria, but they are the exception.
Pitchers are just much higher risks than position players. More likely to have an injury that derails a career, more likely to just âlose it,â more likely to just not develop past âgreat stuffâ
Iâve seen reports of 2 @$24M with a player option for a third. So this puts us over the tax threshold for now. If he pitches like he did in 2018 and 2019 this is a well-needed good pickup. Will be interesting to see what Strom does with him.
Despite my disappointment at not getting Bradley, in hindsight thatâs a good non-move. Shoring up the rotation is more important and JBJ wouldâve given the team less payroll flexibility to get this done. Two-year deal with Odorizzi provides some continuity with Greinke and/or LMJ likely departing next offseason.
I would also add that there are numerous guys who were first round picks who blossomed for other teams, not the one that drafted them. Guys like Gerrit Cole and Adam Wainwright come to mind. And for some reason, supplemental picks seemed to do better than standard picks.
Whitley barely made the current issue of Baseball Americaâs top prospect list; which by their own admission was based on his prior ranking as the top pitching prospect in baseball.
Well, if I try real hard to look at the bright side, perhaps this is why heâs had so many issues the last two years. Hopefully the surgery and time off will help him get right and he wonât be a total bust.