I watched in over the weekend against the Twins and he looked very good. Lively fast ball.
As Doyce said, Schwab tends to just throw shit out there. I have zero doubt that Brown has talked to the Sox and both of those players have been discussed. We might well indeed end up with one of them, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we end up with one of them, much less both. There are way too many teams in contention, with farm systems way deeper than ours, who will want Cease and Robert if the Sox make them available. And as of two weeks or so ago, word was eveyone was available but those two and I think Vaughn. There are going to be multiple teams with multiple top 100 ranked players, some of them MLB ready, talking to the Sox.I just don’t see us competing with that. Would be glad to be proven wrong unless….
….that means trading Hunter Brown. I’m not moving him. He’s young, controllable, potentially extendable like we did with Yordon, and he has Verlander like potential. No way I’m trading him.
We can get a quality pitcher without mortgaging the future. If we could get Stroman, Giolito or even Paxton, who has been rumored as well, that one addition, along with occasional starts from Blanco and Bielak would take some much needed innings stress off of Javier and Brown, whom we need to not burn out between now and the fall. And don’t forget Urquidy. If he’s back, with the one trade addition, this team looks totally different.
Offensively, while I’d like another high quality corner outfield bat to take stress off of Yordan where he could just DH the rest of the year, I think we will be ok if we can just get Alvarez and Altuve healthy. And while I’m not putting much stock in it, Blummer said Tuesday to not count out Brantley just yet. Said that while no official statement has been made by the Astros, he obviously has heard something that makes him think we haven’t seen the last of uncle Mike. He could be our bench bat if nothing else and his bat coming off the bench would be awesome.
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A deal for Cease and Robert would hurt. BAD.
I think it would need to start with a proven MLB player with star potential and at least 4 years of control. That basically means: Pena or Brown, possibly Diaz.
I think Pena is the most likely. Trading Brown would negate the addition of a starting pitcher and I think Diaz’s value is just a touch short of what they would want in a headliner.
Trading Cease means the White Sox lose 4 of their 5 2023 SP so will want at least 2 SP to help fill 2024 rotation.
The Astros have some of those but no likely #1-2 guys, so 3 rather than 2 SP is most likely.
Garcia, Urquidy, France, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Arrighetti, and Whitley are the options.
Garcia is the most proven who still has projection but a very high floor. Urquidy has the least projection, ceiling, and control. France is the most likely to be good and consistent in 2024. Whitley has the highest ceiling, which is valuable in a lottery ticket, last prospect in a trade.
With Chas, Robert, and Tucker under control for 2+ years Gilbert is expendable and can be included.
2 more prospects that fill holes for Chicago in 2024 are needed to help them pull the trigger and actually feel they got value from the deal - Korey Lee could easily be one of their catchers and Pedro Leon would be a great 4th OF/2B bench player.
So: Pena, Garcia, France, Gilbert, Lee, Leon, and Whitley.
That could fill 7 spots on the 26 man roster for Chicago next year. 5 potential all stars and 2 who have already had all star moments in the playoffs.
Click bait trade fodder….
Bowden suggests in The Athletic that a Cubs-Astros trade could look like this…
Bellinger and Stroman for Bielak, Gilbert and two other lower level minor league prospects.
Gilbert would hurt no doubt, but if I’ve made the decision internally to pay Tucker, I’d pull the trigger. If I already know that I’m not paying Tucker, I’d have to mull this over. Wouldn’t rule it out, but I’d look at other options.
I think Tucker is the one who isn’t intetested in an extension.
I think he has made enough money that he doesn’t feel compelled to take less than he can get and is able and willing to gamble on his health because he is set for life either way.
He may remain with the Astros but I don’t see that happening before he tests the market and if he does it will be, far and away, the longest, largest contract in team history.
Its still 2+ years away and there are some OF in the system who could still emerge as high level starters so while I don’t want to trade Gilbert, I would not consider him off the table.
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I think Tucker is gone. Reports have surfaced that we never got close to extending Valdez or Tucker and that their value has skyrocketed. I don’t remember where I read this, therefore have no idea about the credibility, but it’s not a stretch to believe it.
Valdez will cost more to keep IMO
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I don’t see how we extend Tucker without paying a very dear price, and that’s just not the way this franchise operates. With that in mind, I expect Gilbert to be nearly untouchable.
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The only drawback to Valdez will be his age. He’ll be 32 entering his first FA season. I know that hasn’t necessarily slowed teams down from signing these type pitchers but it is different than being 28-29 come free agency.
They’ll make a very good offer to Tucker that will be 4 years shorter than what someone else will give him.
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This is the precise reason why I am no way consider trading Brown to anyone for anybody. He is probably the future ace of the staff.
I’m more worried about the rest of this season and the next because that squad will still have Valdez, Tucker, Bregman, Altuve & Yordan on it. I know the “window” has stayed open but to me it’s this season and the next (maybe '25 as well) that management needs to push to add on to for one more winner. Cease and Roberts in a deal that sees Gilbert and even Brown depart would be doing that IMO and acceptable to me.
The issue I have with trading Brown in a deal for Cease is that it doesn’t fill a hole.
The Astros need X number of pitchers who can get outs w/ top notch “stuff” in the playoffs.
Right now the Astros have the same number of those guys they will have if they trade Brown for Cease.
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I completely agree.
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Right but I guess I assumed Brown might not be available as a SP come playoff time.
IP’d through the years:
2019 - 23 + college
2020 - zippo (COVID)
2021 - 100
2022 - 126 (129.2 if you include the Post Season)
2023 - currently at 99
He will probably get what, another 11-12 starts if he takes his turn ever 5th day so that would mean another 55-65 IP’d the rest of the way through the regular season? I figured he might get moved to the bullpen at some point but maybe they will have no choice but to keep him in the rotation. If they do, how effective will he be come playoff time? Anyhow, maybe this is not a problem at all. Hopefully I’m worried much about nothing.
That’s why I’m hoping for a very cheap innings eater at the deadline. The only shot this team has in the postseason, if it gets there, is if the arms are as rested and ready as possible come October. A few weeks in the bullpen for Brown and France might be the best acquisition they could make at the deadline.
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EXACTLY!! As I posted above, acquiring one solid pitcher, with the addition of Urquidy, gives you options along with Bielak and Blanco to skip Javier, Brown and/or France on occasion and let them back off the innings somewhat. Urquidy coming back and being able to pitch effectively, if he can, is going to be HUGE.
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I’m not giving up Gilbert for two rentals, unless the deal comes with a guarantee Stroman signs an extension.
I also just can’t shake the belief that this is not a World Series year, and I don’t want to rob from the future for the sake of a longshot postseason run. We’re just now starting to rebuild the farm after years of trades and draft penalties. There are ways of improving this team’s postseason odds in ‘23 that don’t depend on sacrificing good prospects—no need to do more.
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That’s a good point.