Would you offer him 8 @ $200 and if so, do you think he’d bite?
- Yes
- No
Correa’s agent says “hey thanks for the offer, that’s a good place to start. How bout 300/10?”
Somewhere in the middle might get it done
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Duquette and Ferrin were discussing Correa and his potential extension today on MLB Radio. Both agreed he gets more than Springer but Duquette said because of his injury history, poor 2020 regular season and overall inconsistent play, that $200M was probably the right number. Now he didn’t say how many years. Was that $25M AAV over 8 or larger AAV and fewer years? At any rate, I think 10 @ $300 would be way too high. He has the potential to be that type of player, but hasn’t shown it consistently as of yet. If that is his number and he won’t budge, then I’ve got shake his hand and wish him well as he walks out the door. Obviously not my money though.
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10 @ $300 may be too high.
But it may also be the minimum Correa is willing to accept as an extension.
He may bet on himself
If he plays 140+ games at 5.0+WAR he will get that as a free agent.
I’m not saying do it, but if the team is going to sign him to an extension and not risk losing him then they may need think that way.
Also, according to fangraphs, the “cost of a free agent” is about $8 mil per WAR.
Correa has averaged about 5 WAR per season even with injuries and a poor 2020.
And he is only 26.
Even if teams feel he has peaked but will keep this level of production that equates to way more than AAV of $30 mil per season.
Which he’s done exactly once (in 2016). Let’s say he does the normal walk-year thing and plays thru the normal tweaks of the season trying to show he’s healthy by getting to 140+ games. What good is he the following year? Back problems for tall people are cumulative.
To be fair to Carlos, he played 58/60 games last year and his 1.8 WAR projects out to 5 WAR over a full season.
I would be willing to go to 240/8 or 260/9 or 275/10 but probably no more than that. But my opening offer would start at 215/8, 240/9, 260/10 and go from there
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I wouldn’t be shocked but a slightly lower overall guarantee but with an opt out after three or four years. Gives the team a lower guarantee and AAV for luxury tax, gives Carlos the chance to cash in bigger if he stays healthy.
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Which is why I like the idea of moving him from short to third eventually. I’ve even wondered could he transition to first base, since we don’t seem to have a long term answer at that position in the minors? His height would certainly be an advantage at first but wonder about his lower half and back laying out for bad throws. But a future infield of Correa at first with Altuve, Pena and Bregman doesn’t look bad…at least on paper.
I’d hate to waste an arm like that at 1B. 3rd I can definitely get behind, he’d be a great defensive 3B, even better than he is at short.
Agreed on 1B. Bad idea.
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It’s always a gamble to sign a free agent. I think it’s a greater gamble to sign a player long term, if the words, “when healthy” precede “a top player at his position”.
You don’t move a glove/arm like Correa to 1B unless it’s because he’s completely broken down. You can find someone to play 1B.
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He’s 27, a GREAT defensive shortstop and had no issues last year.
I don’t think they need to talk about moving him just yet.
In fact, if he does sign then I say trade Pena or Nova to improve other areas.
For me, that’s Nova. His development has really stalled.
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If they resign Correa and he ends up at 1B at some point, it’s because something went wrong, or it’s the last year of his 10 year contract and 37yo Carlos can’t play anywhere else.
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$300,000,000 over 10 years would be a tough pill to swallow and I highly doubt that Crane would ever extend a contract for that long. I’m not sure that Correa would ever sign any contract for less than that until he has had bids from other teams though.
Then you would have to wonder how Bregman and Altuve would feel being paid less than Correa. Both Bregman and Altuve have been way more consistent since they came up.
I think Altuve & Bregman could give a shit how much Carlos gets paid so long as he’s on the team.
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I hope you’re right.