Correa is a great talent but I can’t blame Houston for not offering 10 years. From 2015 through 2021 (not counting 2020) he averaged 115 games played. He had a good season this year but it certainly wasn’t an mvp caliber season and that’s the kind of contract he’s wanting. If he’s injury prone in his early/mid 20’s, what’s going to happen in his mid/late 30’s?
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I agree with this. Last season was a historical injury-free anomaly. The Astro’s offer is adequate given all parties’ self-interests. More contract years invites overpayment.
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I truly think Correa is not the “pay me the most” type of guy. And I think leaving Altuve to take the brunt of the hate will weight heavily on him. For all intends and purposes he admires Bagwell and Biggio for being the faces of the franchise, and I think he wants in on that.
I know it is high risk given his past injury history, but if they up the year to 7 and maybe even add some mutual options, he may have his reason to stay.
Maybe I’m just naive.
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Have to be upfront here, I know dick about the free agency process, the money involved, agents, management’s posturing and social media propaganda of will he or won’t he. No clue.
But the one thing I do know is that one of the biggest tasks that the collective group of American league GM’s has is to make sure Correa leaves the Astros. All the incentives point to our Stros losing leadership, WAR, and infield stability. And its framed as - either give your franchise player what we wants or risk losing him. This is an uphill battle against much of the baseball world. Astros are clearly better with him — and there is no scarcity of ownership willing to do longer contracts does not bode well imo.
I’ll go back into my reading hole now 
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Platinum Glove
Astros also best defensive team in AL.
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I had an idea for a contract offer.
6 yrs /$210 commitment. + 4 club option years that become vesting or player options w/ 550 PA the previous year. Plus an opt out after year 3.
$24 mil. Signing bonus.
2022 $32 mil
2023 $32 mil.
2024 $32 mil.
Opt out - after 3 yrs/ $120 mil.
2025 $30 mil
2026 $28 mil.
2027 $38 mil.
2028 $28 mil club option w/ $4 buyout. Becomes vesting option w/ 550 PA in 2027.
2029 same as 2028 ( vested w/ 550 PA in 2028)
2030 $25 club option w/$3 mil. Buyout. Becomes player option w/ 550 PA in 2029.
2031 $23 mil club option w/$2 mil buyout. Becomes player option w/ 550 PA in 2030.
6 yr/$210 mil commitment
Carlos can opt out at age 30 after making $120 mil in 3 yrs.
If he does not opt out, Astros are only committed to $89 mil for 3 more years.
If the options are vested in 2028 and 2029 they will almost surely be very club friendly, assuming salaries are higher and after a 550 PA season, he is still very productive.
In yrs 9 and 10 the options become player options if Carlos gets 550 PA the previous year. At ages 35 and 36 this gives him security if he can’t get contracts with this AAV but allows him to chose with marginal negative commitment to the club. Again figuring salaries are higher in general and w/ 550 PA the previous year, he is still reasonably productive.
Bonuses: $1 mil. each for GG, PG, SS, and ALCS MVP, $2 mil for WS MVP.
Why the Astros offer it: it’s only a 6 yr/210 commitment with a strong possibility of only being 3 yrs. If it goes beyond 6 years the annual salaries are reduced to limit the financial burden and possible negative impact. After year 6, if Carlos breaks down they are only commited to the current year.
Why Carlos takes it: Bet on himself; if he feels he can get 550PA each year he has his 10 years and $310 mil. If the market ( or his value) explodes he can collect $40 per year and become a FA again at age 30. Each year he can make up to an additional $6 mil in bonuses.
Well, what do you guys think?
I hope James Click reads this.
Correa has zero interest in “betting on himself”. He’s not a young up and comer trying to prove himself. He’s already earned it, will demand guaranteed money, and he will get it from somewhere. There is no way he would consider this type of deal. Not even for a millisecond.
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I think he’s going to sign elsewhere with a straight up 8-10 year deal.
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I was afraid you would say that.
I was hoping the 3yr/$120 mil opt out would be tempting enough.
Just wanted to see if anyone else was remotely hopeful.
I am more and more convinced that he is wearing Tigers Orange instead of Astros Orange next year, along with Verlander.
Oh well, over the past 40+ years I have watched player after player leave.
This too will pass.
You got to see two Hall of Famers stay here their entire career, which is rare enough when it’s only one. Players leaving is part of the game. The Astros will survive and you will too.
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Name one superstar that signed such a jury-rigged contract the first time they hit the free agent market. You probably can’t, because most superstars in the primes of their careers don’t need their contracts to be so heavily leveraged on things like plate appearances.
If you switch ALL the club options to player options straight up, then it starts to become feasible. It basically gives Correa a bunch of opt-outs toward the end of his career. But as written above, Correa would be wearing a different jersey next year.
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I don’t think Correa’s contract will be complicated at all. 8-10 years, at least $30mm per year, probably a no trade clause. He will have multiple teams to choose from on a deal like that too.
Thanks for the insight. That makes sense.
10 years at $32MM or more annually. He wants to be in the same ballpark as Tatis, Lindor and Machado. He’ll hold out until March before he backs off from that.
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This is a massive ego-stroking exercise for him, and I am almost at the point of not caring what he does.
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The bidding will START at 10/$300MM with opt outs. The opt out is not a carrot to dangle. It’s a given.
Not only that, you got to see three pennants and a World Series precisely because players left somewhere else to come here. It’s how the game works.
I was thinking something similar. Focusing on the players who left is not productive and is unhealthy. Focus on the players who wanted to come to Houston and on the players the Astros will acquire in the future.
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In the history of baseball, the team with Correa has won 1 WS.
Yes, way better chance with him than without him, and I want him to stay.
But if he doesn’t this team should still compete in the postseason.
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