I actually did a deep dive into the Astros’ draft history for my latest blog.
For the Astros, at least, 1st round pitchers have made it to MLB twice as often (20.7% to 43.6% never made it) but position players that did have been much much better.
39.1% of pitchers and 31.8% of position players finished their careers with negative WAR.
26.1% of pitchers and 45.5% of position players finished with at least 5 WAR
21.7% of pitchers and 40.1% of position players finished with at least 10 WAR
13.0% of pitchers and 31.8% of hitters finished with 20+ WAR.
So the question is how do they quantify success? Is a 1st rounder making it to the Show a success (73% across the league do) or is it based on their performance once they arrive?
This is for 67 1st rd draft picks by the Astros from 1965-2019. Brian Bogusevic was counted as both, because he was drafted as a pitcher but made MLB as an OF.
Round 4: 2B/OF Nick Monistere, Southern Miss (scouting report from BA)
Monistere began his career at Southern Miss as both a pitcher and hitter, but started focusing on hitting as a sophomore in 2024. He broke out a year later, hitting .323/.410/.623 with 21 home runs to earn third-team All-America honors after the season. The 6-foot, 190-pounder righthanded hitter has compact strength and a quick bat that mostly plays to left and left-center. He produced plenty of hard contact in 2025, especially against fastballs, although Monistere will need to chase less in pro ball, and he had some issues with spin as well. His defensive home is a bit of a question mark as well, although he settled in at second base this spring. Still, Monistere’s performance this year was a big step forward after a checkered offensive career at Southern Miss, and he should enter pro ball as a bat-first second baseman who has a bit of outfield experience as well.
Round 5: (Jim Stevenson alert) RHP Nick Potter, Wichita State (scouting report from FSS)
Following a stint at Crowder College, Potter transferred to Wichita State for the 2025 season and immediately because a force out of the Shockers bullpen. It’s one of the best fastballs in the country, up to 100 mph and routinely 95-97. Potter dramatically cuts the heater and is able to keep vertical carry through the zone making it a devastating option at the top of the zone. His 34 percent whiff rate on the fastball this season is evidence to just how dominant he can be with one pitch. The heater is complimented by exceptional athleticism. Potter is a very good mover with borderline elite extension and spin traits that a player development program will sink their teeth into. It’s all the makings of a potential 60- or 70-grade fastball out of a big league bullpen.
Potter’s slider is firm with depth and some lateral movement. He’s struggled to throw the breaker for strikes, though he’s hardly deployed it enough to warrant any sort of conclusive opinion. He also broadcasts the breaking ball a bit and cuts off his stride pretty dramatically in order to get his arm through the release. It’s something that will require plenty of work at the next level.
This is a bullpen profile but there’s so much to like. His 6-foot-4-inch frame is long, lean, wiry and whippy. Potter could add 15 more pounds of muslce and suddenly be living 97-99 touching 102. He’s got the components to get there. Developing value with the secondaries and throwing more consistent strikes across the board will unlock his high leverage upside. For now, it’s a terrific ball of clay that will need time and attention to reach his ceiling.
If we’re looking for this year’s Bryce Mayer (college reliever the Astros stretched out into a starter with initial success this season), I think Potter is the guy.
Gabel Pentecost goes to the Astros in the sixth round. RHP out of Taylor University (NAIA school in Indiana). Went 12-1 this year with a 2.75 ERA and 108 K’s. FB can hit 96 mph with spin. Also throws a good slider and curveball.
Taylor University head coach Kyle Gould watched Pentecost’s final game as a high school pitcher with the Fremont Eagles, and after a two-week recruiting process, he was a Trojan.
Gould said the recruiting class was already complete when he watched Pentecost pitch. However, after watching him throw two pitches, Gould was sold and called his assistant pitching coach.
He recognized that Pentecost didn’t throw super hard yet, but they knew he could get stronger.
“We’re signing this kid today,” Gould told his assistant coach.
Pentecost, in his sophomore and now junior year at Taylor, has shown remarkable dominance. The flamethrower’s fastball has topped out at 96 miles per hour. He also has a wicked slider, curveball and changeup to complement his heater.
Astros take Mitchell in round 7. Score one for the prognosticators. Probably a little over slot, nothing crazy, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them take seniors through round 10 to secure the dough.
Mitchell is a power-oriented lefthanded hitter and catcher with a great frame at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds. The Delaware native played for the same Cape Henlopen program that produced big leaguer Zack Gelof and, like Gelof, won the state’s Gatorade player of the year award. He has plus raw power already and still has a chance to fill out and add more strength in the future. Mitchell does make some aggressive swing decisions now and has the sort of long-levered swing that might come with miss tendencies and create a power-over-hit profile. He has a chance for an above-average arm behind the plate, but there are questions about his blocking and receiving that could ultimately force him off the position. Mitchell is committed to Kentucky.
FWIW, Kendall Rogers from D1 Baseball really likes what the Astros did in the fourth round:
“Love that pick for the @astros in @SouthernMissBSB OF Nick Monistere. Insanely hard-nosed player who plays the game at rapid speed. Showed some serious power for the Golden Eagles this past season.”
Senior sign for the Astros in the tenth round - Zach Daudet from UCSB. Primarily played 1B this year from the Mustangs hitting 9 HR with 26 RBI (and a slash line of .360/.465/.593). Also had 28 BB to 31 K.
And now we’re a few picks away from the eleventh and twelfth rounds of the draft (some of my favorites, btw). This is usually when we get to see which “sleeper” picks teams have been waiting to draft and possibly sign to overslot deals.
Round 8: 2B Kyle Walker, Arizona State (FSS scouting report)
One of the premium bat-to-ball artists in the 2025 class, Walker boasts elite contact rates on pitches inside of the zone. Uniquely, he’s one of the best hitters in the country when it comes to putting fastballs over 92 mph in play. He ran a whiff rate under 2 percent on those pitches. Walker owns a sound approach with strong swing rates on pitches inside of the zone and a managable 24 percent chase rate outside of the zone. He doesn’t whiff too often when he expands the zone either. It’s a healthy hit tool profile that should run solid batting averages at the next level.
Slugging is a different story. Walker owns 40-grade raw power and doesn’t project to impact the middle of the lineup going forward. It’s a table-setter and/or back-third of the lineup stick that helps the conga line drum on. Walker does have some feel for the barrel and gets the most out of his bat speed, but he shouldn’t be relied on to hit more than 10-12 homers per year at his absolute peak.
Walker is a smaller-framed second baseman with above-average speed and a quick-twitch first step. He’s out of the box hard and gets very solid reads on the bases. He’ll add value with the run tool. He’s technically sound at second base with the glove and projects a solid-to-above average defender. His defense improved upon arriving to Tempe in 2025 under the tutelage of head coach Willie Bloomquist.
Walker is something of a Ryan Bliss type of profile. He can hit, he can run, and he can defend at a high clip on the middle of the dirt. He likely won’t be a huge slugging threat at the next level, but it’s a high floor, productive big leaguer that represents the glue of a lineup.
Love it, I got my contact hitter somewhere. The incomparable @eephustosser.bsky.social says: “New Tony Kemp just dropped.”
Round 9: RHP Kellan Oakes, Oregon State (scouting report via eephustosser, see link above)
Kellan Oakes, RHP, Oregon State. Profiles as a polished bullpen arm with versatile backend or swing–man starter upside. Clean delivery, pitch efficiency, ability to handle pressure. Top-tier strike thrower with low walk rate; slight tendency to nibble missing bats when he catches too much zone
Round 10: 1B (or SS?) Zach Daudet, Cal Poly (again via eephustosser)
Zach Daudet, 1B, Cal Poly. I didn’t rank Daudet because MLB did not list him as a draft candidate, but if I had, he’d have been a tick above Miura in my Big West hitter rankings. High-contact hitter with LH pop. Moved around before settling at 1B, athletic enough for COF and spot infield work. Astros have Daudet listed at SS and I can see why. He made some big, strong throws this year. Ultimately, I think his long-term home is right field, but there’s no reason not to plug him into the middle of the infield and see how he does.
A few additional words about seventh round pick Jase Mitchell, C (HS), from Keith Law:
Mitchell is strong, with a swing that’s geared to pull the ball on a line, and he still has some projection left. He moves around well enough behind the plate to see him possibly staying there, but his hit tool lags behind his power and he hasn’t faced very good competition here in Delaware. He’s committed to Kentucky.
But the Astros take another guy from Stevenson’s territory in the 11th:
Round 11: OF Justin Thomas, Arkansas (report from FSS)
Thomas played his freshman season at the University of Georgia where he made eight starts for the Bulldogs. He struggled to get going in a part time role, but did flash his speed and power at times as an 18-year-old in the SEC. Thomas transferred to FSW for the 2024 campaign and immediately became one of the star JUCO bats in the country. A performance that led to his commitment to Arkansas. Thomas starred for the Hogs in centerfield in 2025.
A stout, powder-keg built outfielder, Thomas has tons of strength in his lower half, rounded off shoulders and muscle in his upper-body. He features a line-drive oriented swing that has progressively added loft and bat speed this spring. He’s evolved into something of a power hitter in Fayetteville swatting nine homers and producing a peak exit velocity of 111 mph. He’s projects more a gap-to-gap hitter with 10-15 homer upside as a pro. It’s a rhythmic setup with some ease and waggle. He gets into the zone and stays on-plane for a long time with impact to his pull-side. Thomas’ bat speed comes naturally from a short, compact stroke – at his best when he’s peppering the right-center field gap.
There is some swing and miss that holds back Thomas’ offensive ceiling. He can struggle to identify spin out of the hand and can swing through it both inside of the zone and outside of the zone. He is a patient hitter who works long counts. Finding a way to put tough breaking balls in play will be important in his development at the next level.
Currently a plus runner, scouts think his physical frame may eventually settle in as an above average runner at peak. Thomas is an above average centerfielder who generally takes good routes to the spot and has a gliding nature about him. He’s got feel to make plays at the walls and he’s shown good range – a vocal leader to the corners that flank him. He has a solid-average arm; good for centerfield. Thomas projects a role 4 centerfielder at the next level, potentially a half-grade more if the power continues to blossom with a wood bat.