The trend breaks with potential Astros target Ethan Conrad, Wake Forest OF, off the board to the Cubs at 17.
Just about everyone the Astros have been connected to is still available. Diamondbacks, Orioles, Brewers still to pick before Dana gets his shot.
You get a shortstop and you get a shortstop
Oprah dot gif
Off the board to Arizona at 18
Ike Irish to Baltimore at 19. Some surprises in the order, but basically everyone taken so far was expected to be gone before the Astros’ pick.
Welp, as i said upthread, speaking Conrad’s name to the Astros rendered the idea unpossible.
Andrew Fischer reportedly to Milwaukee, Astros on the clock with essentially everyone tied to them still available. I have zero idea who they’ll take.
Houston Astros officially on the clock. Who are they taking?
I say Cooper Fleming.
Are you using HH’s TV? My MLB Network feed must be at least a couple minutes behind your info source.
Per Joe Doyle, Astros are taking… XAVIER NEYENS
As rumored for a while now. High schooler with big power. Now after all this time babbling about the draft this week, the moment the pick comes, I have to go feed a crying baby.
And there it is. First prep hitter taken by the Astros in the first round since Kyle Tucker (2015).
ETA - a pro pos of nothing, Brendan Summerhill still on the board leads me to believe Keith Law was correct and he’s going to continue to fall in the draft. His injuries this year sadly may cost him a lot of money.
quick one-handed thoughts:
-huge LH power
-may move off 3b
-probably always gonna be a high k hitter
-reportedly going to cost a lot, so wouldn’t expect overslot later
Joey Gallo 2.0
Yeah, that description is definitely disappointing for me. Would prefer more of a contact line drive hitter.
Gallo 2.0 is a possibility, but an extreme one. I wouldn’t hang that tag on him just yet.
Just curious, are 1st round pitchers more likely to bust than 1st round position players? I guess measured by lifetime WAR or something. I’m sure there’s a study that someone around here knows.
I asked the free Brave browser’s AI: Are 1st round pitchers more likely to bust than 1st round position players?
Here’s what it says:
First Round Pitchers vs Position Players
The question of whether first-round pitchers are more likely to bust than first-round position players has been a topic of discussion in baseball analytics. Research suggests that high school pitchers selected in the first round have a higher failure rate compared to other categories, such as high school position players, college pitchers, or college position players.
This is attributed to higher injury rates and the inherent risks associated with developing pitchers, who often face more uncertainty in their development compared to position players.
A study analyzing first-round picks from 1985 to 2012 found that high school pitchers were less likely to reach the 10 WAR threshold, indicating that they are less likely to produce the expected value from a first-round selection.
Another analysis of first-round picks showed that while position players had a slightly higher chance of making it to the majors (59.3%) compared to pitchers (58.7%), the difference was minimal.
However, when it came to producing a productive major league player, the data showed a disparity, with position players generally outperforming pitchers in terms of WAR.
In a broader analysis of first-round picks, it was found that more than 50% of first-round picks are considered busts, with the likelihood of being a bust increasing as the draft slot moves down.
This trend applies to both pitchers and position players, but the risk is often higher for pitchers due to the physical demands and injury risks associated with pitching.
Overall, while both pitchers and position players carry risks, pitchers—especially high school pitchers—are generally considered a riskier investment in the first round due to their higher failure rates and the challenges of developing their skills consistently.
I like the pick, but Neyens is certainly not without some big what ifs right now. Namely, power over hit and can he stay on the left side of the infield? He seems like the prototypical high risk, high reward type of player.
At 95, the Astros take LSU OF/DH Ethan Frey, a mammoth 6’6" right-handed hitter, hits the ball in the air to all fields. And that’s a wrap til tomorrow.
From one of the twitter stat guys, who ranked him 49th in the class (well above consensus):
Frey was DH primarily for LSU this year, but has caught and played the OF before and likely fits in either a corner spot or at worst case 1B long-term. He’s got 70-grade power, with a 116.5 mph max EV and has a near-110 mph 90th percentile EV. The launch profile is average, though and his contact quality numbers have settled below my expectations as a result. The approach is overly passive, with a <35% swing rate, but there’s bat to ball skills here, with performance vs both spin and velocity.
Also:
AVG - .331
OBP / SLG - .420 / .641
AVG v 92+ MPH - .264
Barrel Rate - 23.5%
90th EV - 108.7
xWOBA - .334
Whiff - 21%
IZ Whiff - 10.1%
141 wRC+
That’s a really good in-zone contact rate to go along with the EVs. The results against velo leave something to be desired, but you’re not going to get the complete package in the late third round. A lot to like about this pick.
Day one summary: two corner bats who can whack the fuck out of the ball. G’night.
Really intriguing pick. Think MLB had him at #116? Dual threat qb in high school who really didn’t play at LSU his first two years and only became a full time start about halfway into this season. Heaps of upside but definitely on the raw side of raw.
It’s a good question and I don’t actually know the numbers on it. Quickly looking over the last ten years, very roughly, the percentage of first round picks used on pitchers varies as far as 26% on the low end and 54% on the high. The overall trend over that time has been downward.
I know that doesn’t answer the question, but it’s part of the calculus—teams seem to be pricing in some risk and leaning more toward position players. Maybe that means the pitchers who do get taken in the first round now are seen as surer things, and with that in mind, the number who “bust” may fall simply because teams aren’t taking the risk as much anymore.
All I know is if you’re a pitcher the Astros take in the first round, history says you’re more likely to bust. A funny quirk for a team that’s become so good at pitching development.
