The BA guys in the podcast linked above talked about how they know the Astros are going to pull one or two MLB regulars out of a hat every year, but there’s no telling who it’ll be, so they just have to rank them as they normally would and accept that they’re going to miss. I appreciate their honesty about that.
As for these MLB rankings, I don’t feel strongly that any particular Astros prospect belongs in the T100, but Pipeline is by far the least informed of the major prospect ranking outlets.
Yes that didn’t surprise me. What continues to surprises me is the fact that teams with a long history of finishing at the bottom of the standings are below the Astros (KC & A’s)
I find Law to be arrogant but at least he is clear on how he grades:
I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.
That being said - it is true, the Astros don’t have many of those players. They just keep producing better than replacement level players who plug into the right pieces that make up a solid team. That isn’t the sexy prospect Law is looking for.
From what I’ve read, there have been years of severe brain drain from Oakland’s front office, and they just haven’t brought in good new talent to fill the holes. Their drafts have been unproductive and they’ve gotten very little back when selling from the MLB roster. Disinvestment at the major league level and in the front office is a bad combo. It’s a shitshow.
The Astros “Spring Breakout” game against the Cardinals (top prospects vs. top prospects) just started. There’s a radio stream here, but I’m not sure if there’s video available. The lineup is:
Will Wagner 1B
Kenedy Corona RF
Joey Loperfido LF
Jacob Melton CF
Miguel Palma C
Brice Matthews SS
Colin Barber DH
Alberto Hernandez 2B
Zach Dezenzo 3B
For those who want a closer look at the farm, Spencer Morris (@prospectspencer on twitter) has started a new YouTube channel with clips of in-game action from the most interesting guys in the system. You can check it out here:
The strike outs are concerning, but I think he has a career SO rate <25% in the minors. If Loperfido can get back down to that level while maintaining his current pace, or something similar, watch out.
I still don’t think he’ll be an All Star caliber player in MLB. Just another guy whom the Astros drafted and developed into a useful player for the big league club. And I’d be more than happy with that outcome.
TY, @Duman !
Enjoyed reading this article about potential 2024 bench help.
It was a great reminder of when most of our time as Astros fans (b/f the glory years) was spent reading/dreaming about some prospects that might make the Astros great.
Chase Jawarsky jumped from 29 to 13 to claim the biggest jump.
Andrson Brito has climbed to #8. He is also said to have the best slider in the system.
The only other 2024 draftee to appear on the list is RHP Ryan Forcucci who comes in at #12. He is also in discussion for the best control in the system.
Wander Luciano falls from #18 to #29 to be the biggest drop.