I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…I’m not as pessimistic as you are on Tucker, and I’m not sure why you think they have “no chance” to keep him. This is predicated on Crane pinching pennies far tighter than his peers, and I’m not sure where that idea comes from. You may be 100% right, of course, but if so, saying there is no chance to sign a guy like Tucker essentially means they are conceding any chance at competing. I’m not there yet on Crane.
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Based on where this team is from a depth of MLB talent standpoint , I think getting 2 “B” level players for Tucker actually improves 2025
I prefer Suzuki in RF and Paredes at 3b over Tucker in RF and Dubon/Kessinger/Whitcomb at 3b.
Add the fact that Suzuki has 2 and Paredes has 3 years of control and they would also get a top 75 overall and #5 3b prospect according to mlbpipeline.
For me, there would have to be a better than 50% chance that Kyle takes and extension to not do that deal.
We both know where each other stands on the chances.
I think they are less than 5%.
If it becomes a bidding war next offseason, It will take 10+ years and $400M if he has a typical, healthy season. Even prior to now, he has not been interested in an extension.
His price drastically went up with the Soto deal and I think Crane and Brown know it which is why they are considering this.
My (admittedly uneducated, possibly illogical) gut says Tucker wants to go somewhere else. That is why I personally think they don’t have much chance of re-signing him.
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This is the first I’ve heard that Tucker is unhappy and wants out.
He has given you reasons to infer that. He wants the big contract FA will bring. I am fine with trading him if Brown does a good job getting the return.
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I don’t feel that way. Secondly, my point is that if Crane refuses to keep up with the industry standard, it doesn’t matter how many B-level players they get for 2025. It means they are turning into the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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I get that he wants a big contract. I’d want one too. I did not immediately infer that he simply wants out though. Perhaps he feels that way, but I’ve never gotten that vibe. I may be naive that way.
I don’t necessarily agree that he WANTS to go somewhere else, but I don’t think he has any special attachment or feelings that would give the Astros any kind of advantage over anyone else.
I think he has made plenty of money (nearly $23M) and due another $15+M in 2025 so has no need to worry about gambling on himself and simply wants to decide based on who wants him and how much they are willing to pay.
I did not mean “simply wants out.” He wants the kind of contract Houston will not give, and he does not feel attached enough to take less if Houston does not. I likely am/hope I am wrong, but he has seemed to me to be kinda a “me first” guy.
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I don’t think anyone thinks he’s unhappy and wants out, he just wants the biggest contract he can get and he’s not going to get that from the Astros. There is zero chance he resigns with the Astros, and they would be insane not to deal him now, and Framber, too.
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Totally agree with this.
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I shall remain hopelessly optimistic/delusional.
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I think that working smarter rather than harder can be even more effective.
Rather than keeping up with the industry standard, why not zig when the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees, etc zag.
Use the TB Rays model, but with twice the payroll budget.
If a star player refuses to extend, use his cheap years and then trade him with 1-2 years left for multiple lesser but younger cheaper star players + more prospects.
You can argue that the owner is actually more committed to long term on-field success.
I’m not so sure it’s pinching pennies so much as a philosophy against these 9-10 year deals. That to me is a risk aversion more than a cost aversion.
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There are worse ways to go through life
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His history actually reflects this.
Crane spends. He just doesn’t commit long term.
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You’re never going to bat 1.000 on contracts, so keeping the duration of risk short makes so much sense. I’d rather have the Jose Abreu contract blow up in my face than the Albert Pujols contract.
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Interesting info on the A’s seemingly inexplicable spending while in a minor league park:
They’re set to receive the full revenue sharing amount of $70M this year - and the CBA requires they carry a payroll of 150% of that. They’ve never had payroll more than $99M
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That’s a fascinating detail.
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Red Sox land Crochett from CWS in a trade. Details pending. While the Red Sox were a possible landing spot for Valdez, Crochett being off the market could make Framber’s value go up.
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