Where the draft boards had him: BA (NR), MLB Pipeline (NR), McDaniel (NR), Law (NR), Longenhagen (NR).
The third straight shortstop pick for the Astros. Arizona native spent two years at Yavapai before moving on to the Big 12 and Horned Frogs. Although he started all 59 games at SS for TCU in 2021, the numbers weren’t exactly pretty–.231/.343/.313. This spring was a complete turnaround as he hit .355/.443/.645. That 1.088 OPS ranked 5th in the conference. Second Jim Stevenson pick.
Where the draft boards had him: BA (NR), MLB Pipeline (NR), McDaniel (NR), Law (NR), Longenhagen (NR).
63 Ks in 78.2 IP this spring as a starter for Boston College with a 1.278 WHIP. Made four starts in the Cape this summer prior to the draft and acquitted himself pretty well–20 Ks vs 4 BBs in 17 IP with 14 hits allowed.
Where the draft boards had him: BA (NR), MLB Pipeline (NR), McDaniel (NR), Law (NR), Longenhagen (other college).
Originally went to Louisville and didn’t play much in three seasons there so he transferred to Georgia Tech. Put together a very nice season for the Yellow Jackets this spring at .335/.466/.689. That 1.155 OPS ranked 5th in the ACC. Listed at SS by Astros but the scouting reports say he’s a 2B as a professional.
Where the draft boards had him: BA (NR), MLB Pipeline (NR), McDaniel (NR), Law (NR), Longenhagen (NR).
2 years at Dodge City juco before heading to U of Illinois for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Transferred to the D2 Gorillas for 2021 and went .265/.397/.605. This spring he hit .399/.478/.755 and the lefty hitting 1B was named a first team D2 All-American. .355/.399/.492 in the Northwoods League last summer. 3rd Jim Stevenson pick.
Where the draft boards had him: BA (NR), MLB Pipeline (NR), McDaniel (NR), Law (NR), Longenhagen (NR).
Part of that Dominican Republic to the Bronx pipeline. Went to juco Monroe College before moving on to the SWAC with Grambling. Hit .409/.515/.679 this spring.
Let’s say it’ll take ~ $2m to sign Melton. That would mean the Astros need to shake the couch cushions and find an addtional $900k from his $1.1m slot value.
Let’s also say that Clifford is somewhere around the 90th best prospect (if we average his rankings). Slot values for the 90-100th picks are $600-700k. For the sake of argument I’d assume something slightly higher, more like $750k (i.e. $625k over slot).
So, if any of this is even remotely accurate, the Astros need to go ~ $1.5m over slot to sign both of them. I think it’s certainly possible to do that, but it definitely requires Taylor and nearly every Day 2 draftee to sign a substantially underslot deal.
I agree with your rough estimates on Melton and Clifford.
And of course they wouldn’t have taken Clifford if they weren’t already certain of the underslot savings on Taylor and the D2 guys.
I like what they did.
The highest paid guys coming out of this draft are likely to be Gilbert, Melton, Taylor, Dombroski and Clifford. Those are the ones to pay the most attention to.
Overall, I like what the Astros did as well (Melton and Clifford, in particular). They were pretty limited by their bonus pool and did a nice job maximizing value. I still would’ve preferred a power arm like like Prielipp to Gilbert at #28, but am more than happy to be proven wrong.
Taylor looks like the sleeper of the draft, as much as anyone drafted at #80 can be.
ETA: Price looks like another relatively unheralded prospect whom the Astros have made it a regular habit of turning into useful players at the MLB level (e.g. Tony Kemp, Jake Meyers).
The first NDFA signing (and 5th Jim Stevenson signee)…
VanWey K’d 123 in 83 IP this spring for the D2 school. He walked 25 but also plunked 11. The 6’3" righty was playing in the Pioneer League this summer. Whiffed 46 in 39 innings but allowed 21 walks and 8 longballs.
Missouri Southern is located in Joplin and their main rival is Pittsburg St. 17th round pick Garrett McGowan was 2-8 with a double, homer and 2 Ks against him in 2 games this season.
Notre Dame weekend starter Austin Temple apparently will be signing as a NDFA with the Astros. The 23 year old 6’4" 180 lb righty spent 4 years at the U of Jacksonville (few appearances in '20 due to COVID of course and he was injured and made just 2 outings in '21) before transferring for '22 to ND. K #s and limiting the hits this spring were certainly fine (87 and 49 respectively in 69 IP) but the free passes were a problem as they have been throughout his collegiate career. He walked 113 in 202 career innings. Low 90’s FB with a good CB.
